Tornado Outbreak Possible Today

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in today’s video we talk about the Tornado Outbreak possible today!
Supercells and Tornadoes look likely, EF2+ tornadoes look possible.

be safe everyone.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020

Valid 121300Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY…NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY…

…SUMMARY…
The greatest severe-weather threat will be during the day from the
eastern Ozarks region to the lower Ohio Valley and central Kentucky,
featuring tornadoes, damaging wind and isolated large hail.

…Ozarks to central KY/northern TN and north TX…
Multiple episodes of severe thunderstorms are possible today, most
concentrated in and near the “enhanced risk” area, from mid/late
morning through afternoon. Supercells and organized multicells are
expected, with the potential for a few supercells to mature/persist
long enough for a tornado threat. Significant/EF2+ rated tornadoes
may occur. Large hail is possible, especially from supercells, and
with modes potentially becoming clustered or messy with time, the
wind-damage potential will extend farther eastward. The severe
threat will extend down the front across AR to parts of north TX,
but in briefer, less-organized fashion with southwestward extent.

Activity is expected to develop initially in a zone of strong
low-level theta-e advection, south of the warm front and southeast
of the cold front, with MUCINH weakening as the warm sector
destabilizes from both that effect and weak diabatic surface
heating. Sustained surface-based parcels are uncertain with this
activity, especially in middle/northern parts, given its position on
the northern rim of the warm sector in a low-CAPE, moderate to
strong-shear setting. A second round of storms will form along the
surface cold front with access to greater CAPE and perhaps stronger
shear as well. Buoyancy generally will decrease northward through
the warm sector. By contrast, hodograph sizes increase, in
concordance with:
1. More-backed surface winds nearer to the warm front, and
2. A LLJ strengthening to 50-60 kt through the day, as part of the
mass response to the strong trough passing north of the area.
That trough also will tighten height gradients and boost deep shear,
rendering 45-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes in forecast soundings
in the “enhanced” area, weakening southward as pre-cold-frontal flow
becomes weaker and more-veered in the boundary layer.

A narrow corridor of theta-e advection ahead of the cold front,
combined with diurnal heating and relatively steep midlevel lapse
rates, will support a ribbon of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, transitioning
to pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE south of the warm front as far
east as the southern Appalachians, away from areas of persistent
convection.

..Edwards/Goss.. 03/12/2020

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