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In today’s Livestream I will be bringing you live Radar Coverage for the Tornado Outbreak Today.
Shear looks favorable we instability above 3,000 Cape, the only thing that looks to possibly lower our threat is showers out ahead of the warm front.
I’m expecting multiple supercells today with a High chance of Major tornadoes, Hail could also cause a lot of issues I’m expecting very large hail with these extreme supercell storms.
Currently a tornado outbreak seems very possible and we could see a few major tornadoes throughout Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arkansas, or Even Kentucky.
the Biggest threat is for Iowa and Illinois though.
I’m especially worried about Chicago, Madison, Davenport, Cedar Rapids, Springfield, Peoria, Quincy, Decatur, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Waterloo, Dubuque, Mason City, Cedar Falls, Fort Dodge, Platteville, Galesburg, and Normal.
Latest from the SPC –
…Mid Mississippi Valley and vicinity…
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in episodic arcs from
midday through this evening across parts of central/eastern IA,
eastern MO, IL, and IN, moving northward to northeastward generally
at 45-60 kt. This will include supercells with tornadoes (some
long-tracked and significant at EF2+ damage levels), large and
sometimes very large hail, and occasionally severe non-tornadic
gusts. Given the fast storm motions, any tornadoes that do form may
persist for nearly as many miles as minutes of time — at least,
until supercells cross more than a short distance into what should
be a very sharp warm-frontal zone.
Intense deep-layer winds and low-level shear will be present, with
60-80 kt effective-shear magnitudes, amidst 90-100 kt of 500 mb
flow, under and near a 150-kt 250-mb jet. Long, somewhat curved
hodographs are forecast, yielding warm-sector effective SRH of
200-400 J/kg, but higher along the immediate warm front where
storm-residence time will be brief. A zone of favorable
destabilization — narrowing with northwestward extent from IL and
eastern MO into central IA — is forecast following morning
clouds/precip, as diurnal heating and steep midlevel lapse rates
overspread a plume of moist/warm advection just ahead of the Pacific
front. Additional supercells may form in the warm sector over IL
and move into IN, also offering potential for significant
tornadoes/hail and damaging wind before this part of the event wind
down in the evening.
Given that some uncertainties remain regarding the duration and
width of destabilization across this region with respect to forecast
rapid supercell motion across the warm sector, and regarding
coverage of supercells, we are holding the probabilities to those
supporting a categorical “moderate” threat at this time. This does
not preclude the potential for a tightly targeted area of higher
probabilities during the day if mesoscale developments warrant.
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