Severe Weather Outbreak Live Coverage – March 19th, 2020 – Supercells and Large Tornadoes

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In today’s Live Severe Weather outbreak Coverage for March 19th, we will Cover the Dangerous Supercell storms and potential Tornadoes that occur. States like Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Cities impacted – Little Rock, Lincoln, Omaha, Des Moines, Chicago, Kansas City, St Louis, Pedria, Hannibal, Evansville, Louisville, Springfield, and Dallas.

…Synopsis…
In mid/upper levels, the closed cyclone near RNO should meander
erratically over western NV and the adjoining Sierra through the
period. A strong shortwave trough — initially apparent in
moisture-channel imagery over the Four Corners region — will pass
from the peripheral cyclonic-flow field of the NV low, through a
broader-scale ridge over the south-central Rockies, then across the
central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Increasing
cyclonic flow over the upper Mississippi Valley — around a
northern-stream perturbation digging southeastward over the Dakotas
and MN — then will absorb and deamplify the central Plains feature.
To its south, a belt of strong deep-tropospheric southwesterlies
will cover much of the central/southern Plains and middle
Mississippi Valley.

At the surface, a cyclone was analyzed at 11Z over
east-central/northeastern CO, with a synoptic warm front eastward
across northern KS to central MO and western KY. The low is
expected to move along the synoptic frontal zone and across the
northern KS/southern NE area today, before redeveloping
northeastward over Lakes Michigan and Huron overnight, in response
to the blending of the shortwaves to its west. A trailing cold
front will sweep southward over the central/southern Plains and
mid/upper Mississippi Valley through tomorrow morning. The cold
front should reach southern WI, northern MO, southeastern KS, and
the TX Panhandle by 12Z. The warm front will cross portions of
southeastern NE, northwestern MO, IA, and northern IL ahead of the
surface low(s) this afternoon and evening.

The threats should be relatively maximized in and near the
“Enhanced” areas, with a relative minimum (but still at least
isolated severe thunderstorms possible) in between, and trailing
southwestward across portions of TX.

…Northern MO/NE/IA and vicinity…
Scattered thunderstorms, including several supercells, are expected
to develop in one or two arcs today, near the southern NE/IA warm
front and across parts of northeastern KS/northwestern MO, near the
nose of a low/middle-level dry slot forced by the ejecting shortwave
trough. Deep-layer forcing for ascent will strengthen through the
day as the mid/upper perturbation approaches. The related mass
response will lead to increasing low-level lift and backing of
surface flow along and very near the warm front, though veered
surface winds are probable southward into the warm sector. The
frontal zone will act as a localized low-level SRH/lift maximum,
supporting tornado potential with any storms that can maintain
enough residence time in it before encountering too much poleward
stable air.

Thermodynamic support will arise from steepening midlevel lapse
rates, diurnal surface heating behind early cloud cover/precip, and
a ribbon of favorable low-level moisture advection into the
corridor. Forecast soundings suggest dew points ranging from low
50s west to low/mid 60s east can support a ribbon of 1500-2500 J/kg
peak MLCAPE over parts of southeastern NE, northwestern MO,
northeastern KS and southwestern IA. Buoyancy should decrease
eastward amidst weaker lapse rates, and westward amidst less
moisture. Deep shear will be highly variable under strongly
difluent mid/upper-level flow, with contribution from near-frontal
backing, but generally stronger near the Missouri Valley and over
IA. Though overlapping somewhat, the greatest thunderstorm-wind
threat appears somewhat eastward-displaced with respect to large
hail. The convective regime and associated severe potential should
spread eastward across the outlook area into early evening, before
encountering gradually stabilizing boundary-layer air.

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