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In today’s stream we talk about the severe weather outbreak going on in the Dakotas, we will be bringing live coverage of these severe thunderstorms that have large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes.
…THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN…
A significant severe weather event is expected this afternoon
through tonight over parts of North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and
northwest Wisconsin. Widespread damaging wind is the primary threat,
though large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible.
…Northern Plains through Upper Mississippi Valley…
Previous outlook appears on track, and only change has been to
expand the moderate risk a bit farther north to reflect current
trends. Initial thunderstorm development is underway over northern
ND. This activity should evolve into an organized MCS with bowing
segments and embedded mesovortices capable of widespread damaging
wind as it advances through an environment characterized by strong
northward destabilization and 35-45 kt effective bulk shear.
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2020/
…ND to WI/Upper MI…
Morning water vapor loop shows fast westerly flow across the
northern tier of states, with an embedded low-amplitude shortwave
trough over eastern MT. Southerly low-level winds are present
across the Dakotas, with local VADs showing 20-30 knots at 1-2km.
These winds are helping to transport 70s surface dewpoints
northward, yielding an axis of MLCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg later
today from central ND into western MN. Thunderstorms are expected
to form early this afternoon as forcing overspreads the returning
moisture, with a few supercells capable of large hail, damaging
winds, or perhaps a tornado over western/central ND. All guidance
lends confidence that these storms will congeal into one or more
bowing structures by this evening over eastern ND. Storms will
track rapidly eastward at 40-50 knots across parts of MN and into
northern WI and upper MI overnight.
Given the very favorable thermodynamic profiles in place, the strong
westerly flow aloft, and the consistent model guidance, it appears
possible that a derecho will occur this evening and tonight from ND
to WI – with the threat of a corridor of widespread and significant
damaging winds. Have expanded the MDT/ENH risks eastward into parts
of WI/Upper MI where the bowing complex appears most likely to track
late tonight. Have also expanded the ENH southward into more of
central MN due to uncertainty of how far south the MCS might
Warm/humid surface conditions are present today over parts of VA/NC,
with moderate CAPE values and a weak front moving into the area.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/ahead of the front from central VA into northern NC, with
activity sagging southward through the afternoon and early evening.
Winds aloft are weak, limiting convective organization. However,
disorganized multicell and pulse convection may pose a risk of
gusty/damaging winds in the strongest downdrafts.
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